Mortgage shoppers are finally getting a little leverage back. After a brutal stretch of rate spikes, borrowing costs have slipped to their lowest levels in more than a year, and a growing chorus of analysts thinks the sweetest deals of 2026 are still ahead. The big question for buyers and refinancers is not if rates will be better than last year, but how low they are likely to go and when it actually makes sense to lock.
Experts are not promising a return to the ultra-cheap money of the pandemic, but they do see a window where rates dip under 6 percent and briefly flirt with the bottom of the year. The trick is understanding how that window lines up with the broader forecast, and how to build a game plan that does not depend on guessing the exact day the market hits its low.
What the forecasts say about the year’s low
Across the board, forecasters expect 2026 to look more like a slow glide than a cliff dive. Analysts tracking Mortgage Rates see borrowing costs finally slipping below 6 percent as inflation cools and the market adjusts to a less aggressive Federal Reserve. A separate outlook that leans on the MBA 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions pegs the first, second and third quarters at a flat 6.4%, underscoring how stubbornly high rates could stay before easing later in the year. That kind of “higher for a bit longer” pattern is echoed in current snapshots of the market, where a recent review of Mortgage pricing suggested only a slight drop ahead and warned that affordability gains would be modest.
Looking a bit further out, several outlooks converge on a similar landing zone. One analysis of 2026 notes that Mortgage rates are expected to gradually decline as the Federal Reserve, referred to in the report as the Federal Reserve, continues to tame inflation, which should help buyer confidence. Another Prediction frames it more bluntly: Rates will moderate, with 2026 starting around late‑2025 levels before slowly moving back toward historical averages. A separate look at the trend into 2026 notes that Expert opinions differ on the exact path, but the shared theme is a gentle drift lower rather than a sudden plunge that would reset the housing market overnight.
How low could the “low” really be?
For buyers hoping for a once‑in‑a‑decade bargain, the numbers are sobering but not hopeless. A detailed 2026 outlook notes that Housing economists expect rates to land between 5.90% and 6.30% by the end of the year, which would mark a clear improvement from recent peaks but still sit well above the 3 percent range that defined 2021. Another forecast focused on the broader housing market says Mortgage rates may ease in 2026 but are unlikely to truly bottom out, suggesting that buyers waiting for a perfect low may be waiting in vain. A separate review of industry calls notes that Redfin and Realtor both expect average rates around 6.3% in 2026, while Bright MLS comes in slightly lower at 6.1, reinforcing the idea that the “low” of the year is more likely to be a high‑5 to low‑6 handle than anything starting with a 4.
Short‑term moves could still create brief windows that are better than the yearly average. One analysis of the path into 2027 notes that The Mortgage Bankers Association, referred to as The Mortgage Bankers Association MBA, expects rates to hover between 6.1% and 6.4% in 2027, which leaves room for 2026 to undercut those levels at least temporarily, according to When. Near‑term projections for the start of the year back that up, with one forecast saying Experts expect lower rates in the new year but do not see big moves in January itself. At the same time, a separate review of recent pricing points out that Mortgage rates have already dropped to a 15‑month low, back near their lowest level since fall 2024, which is exactly the kind of dip that can quietly mark the best deals of the year for borrowers who are ready.
When to lock, and how to play a “flat” year
So when are experts actually circling the calendar for the lowest point of 2026? One consumer‑focused forecast notes that How low rates go will depend on inflation, but Shultz expects mortgage rates to dip under 6% in 2026 and suggests that borrowers could see that level a few times this year rather than in a single, blink‑and‑you‑miss‑it moment. Another long‑range view, framed as The Bottom Line Mortgage, says Bottom Line Mortgage rates are expected to stay relatively flat through 2026, high enough to keep demand cool and affordability a challenge, especially for first‑time buyers. Regional breakdowns echo that story: one Kansas City–focused guide titled What the Forecasts Say Several notes that What the Forecasts major institutions see a modest decline, while a Dallas–Fort Worth outlook says the major mortgage agencies and big lenders are planning around rates drifting toward roughly 5.9 percent by the end of 2026, according to DFW.
Because the Fed looms so large in this story, it helps to remember how markets actually behave. One explainer notes that Fed decisions are often priced in before they happen, with mortgage rates moving in anticipation of what the Fed might do, not just in response to what it has done. That makes precision timing nearly impossible, a point echoed in a separate discussion of Market timing that calls out how many different investors, strategies and surprise events can scramble even the best‑laid plans. A housing‑market primer drives it home, noting that Expert forecasts are based on what they know right now and can shift quickly, so buyers are usually better off focusing on whether a payment fits their budget than trying to nail the exact bottom. In a year that is widely expected to be “flat,” the smartest move is often simple: get preapproved, watch for dips under 6 percent in the buyer’s target range, and be ready to lock when the numbers finally line up with real‑world life plans.
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