Heating With Gas Or Propane This Winter Should Cost Less But Electric Heat Is Expected To Cost More And Heating Oil Prices Are Forecast Up About 21%

When the weather turns, most of us start thinking about how much it will cost to stay warm. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has some early guidance, and the answer depends on what kind of heat is in your house.

Houses covered with snow on a winter day.

In a press release dated October 6, 2026, the EIA laid out its outlook for the coming winter. Households that heat with natural gas or propane, which the agency says is about half of all U.S. households, are expected to spend less than they did last winter. Households that heat with electricity or heating oil are expected to spend more.

Who comes out ahead and who pays more

The split is worth noticing. If your furnace runs on natural gas or propane, the forecast is better news than you might have expected. Your heating costs this winter are expected to come in lower than last year’s. The EIA release did not give dollar totals, so there is no exact figure to plan around, but the direction is clear.

If you heat with electricity, whether through baseboard heaters, a heat pump or an electric furnace, the outlook is for higher spending. The same goes for heating oil households, and for them the pinch may be sharper. The EIA expects heating oil prices to rise about 21%.

Heating oil, the Northeast and the weather

Heating oil is used by roughly 3% of U.S. households, and the EIA notes that most of them are in the Northeast. That means a small share of the country is bracing for a big price jump, but the people affected feel it where it counts. The agency says milder weather in the Northeast is expected to partly offset the higher price. In other words, if the winter turns out gentler than usual, the increase in the bill could be smaller than the increase in the price per gallon.

Weather is the great unknown. A forecast is a forecast, and a harsh cold stretch can send a heating bill much higher than expected. A mild one can do the opposite. It is smart to plan for the numbers, but also to leave some wiggle room in your budget.

What to do now, by heating type

Whichever way you heat, fall is the right time to get ready. Here are some practical steps tailored to your situation.

Gas or propane homes: Even with lower expected costs, do not skip the basics. Have your furnace serviced, replace the filter, and seal drafts so you keep the benefit.
Electric homes: Since higher spending is expected, look closely at insulation, weatherstripping and thermostat settings. Setting the thermostat lower at night or when you are away can reduce use. Ask your utility about budget billing and efficiency programs.
Heating oil homes: Compare prices among suppliers before you order, ask about price plans, and think about topping off on a schedule that suits your budget instead of waiting until the tank runs low. Have your system checked before the cold sets in.

Why a forecast is a starting point

An outlook like this one is built from expectations about prices, weather and how much energy households will use. It is useful, but it is not a bill. Two homes with the same kind of heat can end up with very different costs because of how well each is insulated, how big it is and how warm the people inside like to keep it. That is why the most valuable thing you can do is learn your own pattern. Pull out last winter’s statements, find the coldest month, and see what you paid. Then you will know how much cushion to build for this year.

If you are shopping for a new heating system, this is also a good moment to talk with a licensed professional about the options that fit your house. A decision like that is bigger than a single winter, so take your time, get more than one estimate, and ask what each system would likely cost to run.

Steps that help everyone

A few habits pay off no matter what keeps you warm.

Close off rooms you rarely use, and keep their vents or radiators set low.
Open curtains on sunny days and close them at night.
Keep furniture and drapes from blocking heat sources.
Wear a sweater and use a warm blanket on the couch. It sounds old fashioned, but it works.
Read your bills each month and compare usage with the same month last year.

Look out for each other

People on fixed incomes have the least room to absorb a jump in heating costs. If you have a neighbor or a relative who heats with oil or electricity, a friendly conversation could help them prepare. Share ideas, offer to help seal a few drafts, and make sure they know to call their utility or supplier if a bill becomes hard to manage.

Many communities and utilities have programs designed to help households that struggle with winter bills. Availability and rules vary, so the first step is simply to ask. Do not wait until a shutoff notice arrives to find out what help exists.

The bottom line

The EIA’s outlook puts households into two groups this winter. Gas and propane users are expected to spend less than last year, while electric and heating oil users are expected to spend more, with heating oil prices forecast to rise about 21%. Know which group you are in, take the easy steps that match your heating type, and give your budget a little cushion in case the weather has other plans.

Willow and Hearth