More Than One in Seven Signed Deals Are Falling Apart
Home purchase agreements are collapsing at some of the highest rates seen in years. Roughly 14% of U.S. home-sale agreements fell through in July 2026, according to Redfin’s own analysis of nationwide pending-sales data, the highest share recorded in nearly three years, since November 2023, and up from 13.7% the month before.
That’s not an isolated spike. Redfin’s tracking shows cancellation rates bouncing between 13% and 14% for months at a stretch. The MortgagePoint, an industry publication covering the same data, independently confirmed the near-three-year high.
Why Buyers Have the Leverage to Walk
Redfin’s research counts 51% more home sellers than buyers nationally, a gap wide enough to hand buyers real negotiating power at every stage of a deal, including the final weeks before closing. “Sometimes buyers get cold feet before the inspection, they revisit the numbers with their lender, get anxious about the payment and never even send the deposit,” said Juan Castro, a Redfin Premier real estate agent based in Orlando, in comments included in Redfin’s report.
Some Markets Are Far More Volatile Than Others
The national average masks sharp regional differences. Sun Belt metros with heavy new construction are seeing buyers cancel at nearly one-in-five rates: Atlanta led at 19.8%, followed by Houston at 19.6%, San Antonio at 18.7%, Las Vegas at 18.6%, and Orlando at 18.2%. Coastal markets with tighter supply look nothing like that. Nassau County, New York, posted the lowest cancellation rate in the country at 3.5%, with San Francisco at 4.1% and San Jose at 6.5%.
What It Means for Anyone Under Contract
For sellers, the numbers are a reminder that an accepted offer isn’t a done deal until it closes. For buyers, the data suggests contingencies are doing real work, giving people cover to exit deals that no longer look as solid as they did at signing. Separate reporting on Redfin’s March 2026 figures found more than 50,000 contracts fell through that month alone.
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