Median Home Sale Price Fell For The First Time In More Than 3 Years, And Pending Sales Hit The Lowest Level On Record While The Monthly Payment Sits At $2,786

For the first time in more than three years, the price of a typical home that actually sold in America slipped below where it was a year ago. It is a small drop on paper, and it is a big signal for anyone with a house to buy or sell.

Tile-roofed homes along a quiet street lined with palm trees under a blue sky

Redfin’s latest weekly report covers the four weeks ending October 25. The median sale price came in at $389,601, down 0.1% from a year earlier.

The figures come from Redfin’s October 29 market release.

Sellers Still Want More Than Buyers Will Pay

Here is the split that explains the whole market. The median asking price was $400,703, up 1.2% from a year ago.

That means sellers are asking for more while buyers are paying slightly less. The gap is about $11,000.

The typical home sold for 98.3% of its list price, and 23.2% of homes sold for more than the asking price. Half of all homes spent about 50 days on the market.

The Monthly Payment Hit $2,786, Up 10.7% In A Year

The reason buyers are balking is plain. At a 7.32% average mortgage rate, the typical monthly payment reached $2,786, up 10.7% from last year.

Redfin says that is the second-highest payment in its records. Last week’s reading was the highest.

The weekly mortgage rate was 7.32%, down from 7.4% a week earlier but still near a three-year high.

Pending Sales Fell To The Lowest Level On Record

Pending sales, meaning homes with a signed contract, dropped 1.8% from the week before. The seasonally adjusted count was 276,352, which is down 15.9% from a year ago.

That is the lowest level in Redfin’s records, which go back to 2021.

New listings are falling, too. They came in at 352,421, down 4% from a year ago and the lowest since January. Still, Redfin says pending sales are falling more, “keeping the pool of inventory partly filled.”

Active listings stand at 1,510,619, up 2.2% from last year. Redfin figures there are 4.5 months of supply, up from 4. A market is usually considered balanced between 4 and 5 months.

Seattle Down 5.1%, San Francisco Up 15%

The national number hides big swings from city to city. Among the 50 largest metros, the biggest price increases were San Francisco at 15%, New Brunswick, New Jersey, at 8.4%, Pittsburgh at 7.4%, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.9%.

The biggest declines were in Seattle at 5.1%, San Jose at 4.9%, Austin at 4.6%, Kansas City at 4.3% and Nashville at 3.3%.

Pending sales fell the most in Seattle, down 31.6%. Atlanta was down 25.9%, San Diego 25.3%, Las Vegas 22.7% and Denver 22.3%. Pending sales fell in every metro Redfin analyzed for the third week in a row.

Share of listings with price cuts rose to 21.5% from 20.9%.

What It Means If You Are Selling

Redfin says there are hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers nationwide. If you are listing, assume you are competing.

Price to the sales that have closed in your neighborhood, not to what your neighbor is asking.
Expect to negotiate. Be ready to offer help with closing costs, which can lower a buyer’s payment more directly than a price cut.
Spend on the basics: a clean house, fresh paint where it is scuffed, working lights and a tidy yard.
Do not chase the market down with tiny cuts every week. One well-researched adjustment gets noticed more than five small ones.

What It Means If You Are Buying

Buyers who can handle a payment near $2,800 have more leverage than they have had in years. Fewer people are competing, and more sellers are willing to talk.

Ask the seller to pay part of your closing costs. Ask for repairs after the inspection. Shop at least three lenders, because a small difference in rate adds up over 30 years.

Run the payment for your own price range, including taxes and insurance. A payment you can carry with room to spare matters more than a headline price.

Questions To Ask Your Agent This Week

National averages are a weather report for the whole country. Your street can feel different, and a good agent can show you exactly how.

Ask how many homes in your zip code went under contract last month compared with a year ago. Ask how many listings have cut their price and by how much. Ask how long the typical house is sitting before an offer arrives.

Those three answers tell you more about your own sale or purchase than any national headline.

Do Not Mistake A Pause For A Crash

A price drop of 0.1% is not a collapse. Many owners are sitting on loans with low rates and have no reason to sell, which keeps the supply tight even as buyers pull back.

What the numbers describe is a standoff. Buyers are waiting for rates to ease, and sellers are waiting for buyers. Whoever blinks first usually pays.

If you are in no rush, watch your local numbers for a few weeks. If you have to move, price smart, stay flexible and put your best foot forward.

Willow and Hearth