The National Weather Service will announce its winter outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 on Thursday, October 15, 2026, according to a NOAA media advisory posted October 8, 2026. The advisory says the briefing will cover temperature and precipitation predictions, expected drought changes and the effects of a strong El Niño. Until that outlook is out, the most recent seasonal outlook available is the one the NWS Climate Prediction Center issued on September 17, 2026.
For a homeowner, the outlook matters less than the plumbing. A pipe splits when the water inside it freezes, and the steps that stop it are simple enough to finish before the first storm.
What the latest outlook says
The Climate Prediction Center discussion from September 17, 2026 states that El Niño conditions are present and strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event this fall and winter. For October through December it favors above normal mean temperatures over most of the western, northern and eastern contiguous United States, and it describes a wet signal across the southern and central states.
That is an outlook for seasonal averages across large regions. It does not name the dates of individual cold snaps, and the winter outlook due October 15 will replace it as the latest release.
Why pipes burst
According to the American Red Cross, water expands as it freezes, and the pressure can split pipes made of metal or plastic. The Red Cross lists the most exposed pipes as outdoor lines such as hose bibs and sprinkler or pool supply lines, pipes in unheated spaces such as basements, crawl spaces, attics, garages and under sinks, and pipes that run along poorly insulated exterior walls. The page does not show a publication date.
Steps before the cold arrives
The Red Cross tells homeowners to store outdoor hoses, shut the indoor valves that feed outdoor hose bibs, and open the outdoor bibs so the water drains. It says to leave the outdoor valves open so leftover water can expand without cracking the pipe. Pool and sprinkler supply lines should be drained following the manufacturer’s or installer’s instructions, and it warns that antifreeze is harmful to people, pets, wildlife and plants and should be used only if directed.
For pipes in unheated areas, the Red Cross says to insulate both hot and cold supply lines, and to wrap exposed pipes with pipe sleeves or UL listed heat tape or heat cable. A FEMA handout on winterizing your home also names heat tape and insulation, and tells homeowners to drain and disconnect garden hoses and cover the faucets.
The same FEMA handout says to learn how to shut off the main water valve in an emergency. It adds that water leak sensors, emergency pressure release valves and automatic water shutoffs can help prevent major damage from a burst pipe.
Steps once the cold is here
The Red Cross says to keep garage doors closed when supply lines run through the garage, and to open cabinet doors under kitchen and bathroom sinks so warm air reaches the plumbing. In severe cold, it says to let cold water drip from faucets served by exposed pipes, because even a trickle helps keep water moving.
The Red Cross also advises keeping the thermostat at the same setting day and night, and keeping the heat on at no lower than 55 degrees Fahrenheit if you leave home in cold weather. FEMA gives the same 55 degree figure for the furnace.
The National Weather Service office in Boston, in its Winter Weather Preparedness Week materials for October 28 to November 1, 2024, suggests letting a slow flow of warm water run from the faucet farthest from your water meter, or from any faucet that has frozen before.
If a pipe freezes
The Red Cross says a faucet that only trickles is a sign of a freeze, and common spots include pipes against exterior walls and where the water service enters through the foundation. Leave the faucet open so water can flow as the ice melts. Warm the pipe with an electric heating pad, an electric hair dryer, a portable space heater kept away from anything flammable, or towels soaked in hot water.
It says never to use a blowtorch, a kerosene or propane heater, a charcoal stove or any other open flame. If you cannot find the frozen section, cannot reach it or cannot thaw it, the Red Cross says to call a licensed plumber. It also says to check other faucets, since one frozen pipe often means others are frozen.
Your insurer, your utility and your local emergency management office can tell you what applies where you live. This article reports what the agencies say and is not professional advice.
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