Fourteen percent of U.S. home-purchase agreements that went under contract in July fell apart before closing, according to a Redfin analysis released August 21, 2026. That is the highest cancellation share on a seasonally adjusted basis since November 2023, and it is up from 13.7% in June.
Redfin’s own data points to a market that has quietly flipped in buyers’ favor. The brokerage counted a near-record 51% more home sellers than buyers nationwide in July, meaning shoppers who do sign a contract often keep looking for a reason to back out if something better comes along or the numbers stop working. Elevated mortgage rates and still-high asking prices are leaving, in Redfin’s words, “little financial wiggle room” for many buyers.
Nowhere is that dynamic more visible than in Orlando, where 18.2% of contracts canceled in July, well above the national rate. Juan Castro, a Redfin Premier agent who works the Orlando market, told Redfin the reasons buyers walk rarely make it into the headlines. “Sometimes buyers get cold feet before the inspection — they revisit the numbers with their lender, get anxious about the payment and never even send the deposit,” Castro said. “Other times, they’ll find something relatively minor in the inspection and use it as leverage to ask for major concessions or walk away entirely. Buyers know they have options right now, so they’re pushing harder in negotiations. That can be tough for sellers, but it’s good news for buyers.”
Orlando isn’t even the most volatile market on Redfin’s list. Atlanta led the country at 19.8%, followed by Houston at 19.6%, San Antonio at 18.7% and Las Vegas at 18.6% — all Sun Belt metros that saw heavy pandemic-era construction and now have more inventory than buyers can absorb. That glut gives buyers room to negotiate hard or simply move on to the next listing if a seller won’t budge.
The pattern flips almost entirely on the coasts. Nassau County, New York had the lowest cancellation rate in the country at just 3.5%, with San Francisco at 4.1% and San Jose at 6.5%. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and Milwaukee rounded out the low end at 7.3% and 7.7%. In those tighter markets, buyers who do get under contract tend to see it through, because there is far less competing inventory to jump to if they cancel.
For sellers in cancellation-heavy metros like Orlando, the takeaway from Redfin’s data is blunt: getting to a signed contract is no longer the finish line it once was. Increasingly, it’s just the start of a second negotiation.
Leave a Reply